Our Water Supply in a World of Declining Energy

 20% of California electricity is consumed in water delivery, treatment and use.  -California Air Resources Board

Transition Initiatives are dedicated to building the resilience of local communities in the face of climate change and declining energy supplies. Climate change is predicted to impact our local water supply. Climate scientists such as UCSC professor, Lisa Sloan, are predicting shorter wet seasons in this region, with rainfall concentrated over fewer months. That means less water in the dry months in the San Lorenzo River and North Coast creeks where Santa Cruz gets most of its water. And Soquel Creek Water District groundwater pumping will be affected, since shorter rainfall seasons could mean less aquifer recharge.

While there is widespread public understanding about climate change, the challenge of declining energy supplies has received less attention.
The scientific consensus is that world oil production has reached, or is close to reaching, its peak potential. The quantity of new oil discovered peaked decades ago and has been in decline ever since, despite huge investments in oil exploration. A decline in production is bound to follow a decline in discovery. The shorthand term for the peaking of oil production, followed by decline, is “peak oil”. This peak will be followed by a steady decline in world oil production as oil wells become depleted. In April, 2010, the Pentagon released a report which stated, “By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day.”1 A US Dept. of Energy report released in 2005 concluded, “As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.”2 As oil prices spike, the demand on other energy sources will cause those prices to rise as well.

The peaking of natural gas production is not far behind peak oil. David Fridley, energy analyst with Lawrence Berkeley Labs states. “In the long run, regardless of what techniques are employed, the supply of natural  gas will also begin an unstoppable descent.” Communities that are highly dependent on fossil fuel energy will suffer most in a high-cost energy future.

The analysis that informs Transition Initiatives makes it clear that it will not be possible to continue society’s current level of energy use (let alone meet future energy demand projections) by substituting other energy sources for fossil fuels. While there is vast potential in wind and solar energy, their ability to substitute for fossil fuels is constrained by many factors (see next article). A community that wants to be resilient will not only shift to renewable energy, but reduce its need for energy.

Transition Santa Cruz is concerned that desalination will detract from our community resilience. We are  interested in exploring water solutions that reduce our energy dependence and have a benign affect on the environment.
1 Joint Operating Environment Report. (2010) US Joint Forces Command
2 Peaking of World Oil Production, (2005) Robert Hirsch, et al; US Dept. of Energy
 

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